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Arunima Sinha

Arunima Sinha

Applied macroeconomist specializing in expectations and monetary policy

New York, United States
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Joined February 2026
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Summary

Applied macroeconomist focused on expectations: Her research centers on the role of expectations in macroeconomics—how investor and household beliefs respond to policy and macroeconomic events—and she has published work addressing forward guidance, the yield curve, and term structure implications. weebly+2
Bridges academic research and policy institutions: She has held visiting research appointments at policy institutions (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and contributed to policy-facing pieces (Liberty Street Economics), reflecting engagement with both academic and central-bank research communities. newyorkfed+1
Academic leadership and teaching experience: Served in faculty leadership roles at Fordham University (Director of Graduate Studies, Associate Chair) while progressing through the faculty ranks from Assistant to Associate Professor. weebly+1
Public-facing economics practitioner at a major financial firm: Currently holds a research role at Morgan Stanley, producing commentary and participating in firm-hosted podcasts and insights on macro and policy issues. morganstanley+1

Work

Education

Writing

Why Do Forecasters Disagree about Their Monetary Policy Expectations?

January 1, 2023

Liberty Street Economics piece analyzing increased disagreement in expectations about the future path of the federal funds rate among primary dealers, and empirically distinguishing between disagreement driven by differing macroeconomic outlooks versus differing perceptions of policymakers' reaction functions.

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Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

January 1, 2020

NBER working paper (coauthored with Andrew T. Levin) analyzing the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound during the COVID-19 pandemic and exploring issues of credibility and expectations formation.

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FOMC Forward Guidance and Investor Beliefs

January 1, 2015

Examines how different dimensions of FOMC forward guidance affect ex ante investor expectations about future changes in U.S. Treasury yields, using options and futures data to extract state-price densities and measures of investor beliefs.

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Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance (Ph.D. dissertation)

Doctoral dissertation containing multiple essays in macroeconomics and finance.

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